Two weeks off and I come back to a box office that reorganised itself while I was gone — so let's catch up properly. The headline everyone expected was Alpha: Yash Raj's first female-led spy film, Alia and Sharvari, a hundred crore on the screen, Hrithik dangling as bait. The headline we actually got was quieter and more interesting. Alpha opened okay and then fell off a cliff on Monday. Akshay's Welcome to the Jungle, two weeks in, did the opposite of fade. And the little Imtiaz Ali film nobody was tracking a month ago is somehow still in cinemas, still adding money, in week four. Three films, three completely different stories. Let's go.
- Alpha (YRF Spy Universe · Alia Bhatt & Sharvari) opened to ₹34 crore nett in India — and grew every day of the weekend — beating a loud pre-release negativity campaign.
- Welcome to the Jungle (Akshay Kumar) had a superb second weekend (~₹21.6 Cr), crossing ₹115 Cr India and ₹169.76 Cr worldwide — Bollywood's 4th-biggest of 2026.
- Main Vaapas Aaunga is still climbing in week four, nearing ₹55 Cr on pure word of mouth.
- In the US, Minions & Monsters debuted #1 with a soft $36.4M over the July 4 frame, and Obsession crossed $403M worldwide in week eight.
01Alpha: the film that beat its own smear campaign
Let's start with the film that walked in with a target on its back. For weeks before release, Alpha — Alia Bhatt as Sita, Sharvari as Durga, Bobby Deol as the villain, a Hrithik cameo — was buried under a coordinated wave of online negativity and open exhibitor scepticism. A female-led spy film with no male superstar headlining it? The trade had all but written the obituary. Yash Raj answered the only way that matters: with a release size nobody saw coming, and a film that grew every single day of its opening weekend. ₹9.25 Cr Friday, ₹11.50 Cr Saturday, ₹13.25 Cr Sunday — occupancy climbing from 20% to 29% — for a three-day total of ₹34 crore nett (₹40.88 Cr gross). Bollywood Hungama said the scale of the release "caught the trade by surprise." For the first woman-fronted entry in the Spy Universe, opening double-digits and building through the weekend against that much noise isn't a soft landing — it's a film beating the story that had been written about it.
Is it flawless? No, and we won't pretend otherwise. Monday cooled to ₹3.85 Cr, and against a reported ₹100 crore-plus budget the weekday hold is the test that decides everything now. But a weekend that climbs instead of fading is the single cleanest sign that audiences liked what they saw more than the trolls wanted them to. The doom scenario was a disaster open; Alpha delivered the opposite. The job now is turning that defiance into a run.
Before release we published a BCM call for Alpha's North America weekend: $1.3M–$2.6M, central ~$1.8M. It did $574K (overseas total $1.65M) — we missed, on the high side. And here's the honest reconciliation, because it cuts both ways: the pre-release crowd got the India opening wrong on the low side, and we got the overseas number wrong on the high side. We over-weighted the Spy Universe brand and the Hrithik cameo; abroad, the leads' thinner solo track record was the stronger signal. Box office humbles everyone — trolls and analysts alike. India is where Alpha answered its critics; overseas is where it, and our forecast, came up short. We don't hide either.
02Welcome to the Jungle: the film that won the weekend without opening
Here's the twist the trade didn't see coming: the biggest Hindi story of the weekend was a film in its second week. Welcome to the Jungle should have wilted when Alpha grabbed its screens — it lost nearly 2,400 shows on Friday. Instead it grew. A ₹4.50 Cr second Friday climbed to ₹7.35 Cr Saturday and ₹9.75 Cr Sunday — a genuine weekend build in week two, which is the single cleanest signal that audiences actually like a film. Total India nett is now around ₹115 crore, and worldwide it's crossed ₹169.76 crore, overtaking Cocktail 2 to become Bollywood's 4th-biggest global grosser of 2026.
The engine is exactly what you'd expect from a Welcome film: family audiences and the mass heartland circuits, nostalgia plus Akshay's timing, powered by word of mouth rather than hype. Overseas has quietly become a highlight too, out-pacing several of Akshay's post-COVID releases at the same stage. Akshay is heading for his second ₹200 Cr grosser of the year. The only cloud on the horizon is Dhamaal 4 arriving soon to contest the family audience — but for now, the man who opened two weeks ago is beating the woman who opened on Friday.
Main Vaapas Aaunga is still climbing in WEEK FOUR
I wrote about this film a month ago as the sleeper of June, and I half-expected it to be gone by now. It isn't. Imtiaz Ali's Main Vaapas Aaunga — Diljit Dosanjh, an A.R. Rahman score — is in its fourth weekend and still adding, its fourth Saturday pulling ₹1.75 Cr and the total nearing ₹55 crore. Films that open big are supposed to obey the decay curve. This one never read the manual.
Against a ~₹60 Cr budget it's closing in on its money the slow, honest way — one weekday at a time, one recommendation at a time. In a weekend full of nine-figure budgets flaming out, the cheapest story on the board is the most inspiring one.
03The India Top 10
The full picture, weekend against weekend. Alpha bought itself the top spot; Akshay is the story underneath it; and the holdovers — a female-led Telugu record-breaker, an Imtiaz Ali film in week four — refuse to leave the chart.
| # | Film | Weekend | Last wk | India net | WW gross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alpha NEW | ₹34.07 Cr | — | ₹34.07 Cr | ₹55 Cr |
| 2 | Welcome to the Jungle Wk 2 ▲ | ₹21.60 Cr | ₹60 Cr | ₹115 Cr | ₹169.76 Cr |
| 3 | Main Vaapas Aaunga Wk 4 | ~₹4.5 Cr | ~₹13.5 Cr | ~₹55 Cr | ~₹65 Cr |
| 4 | Cocktail 2 Wk 3 | ~₹3.5 Cr | ~₹13 Cr | ₹92.55 Cr | ₹162 Cr |
| 5 | Maa Inti Bangaaram Wk 3 | ~₹3.5 Cr | ₹14.55 Cr | ~₹55 Cr | ~₹92 Cr |
| 6 | Carry On Jatta 4 Wk 2 | ~₹2 Cr | ~₹8 Cr | ~₹15 Cr | — |
| 7 | Baby Do Die Do NEW | ₹1.81 Cr | — | ₹1.81 Cr | — |
| 8 | Peddi tail | <₹1 Cr | — | ₹238 Cr | ₹340 Cr |
Two quick footnotes to the table. Cocktail 2 is the one the headline writers keep miscalling — ₹92.55 Cr nett looks like a hit until you set it against its budget. And the weekend's casualty was Baby Do Die Do, the Huma Qureshi comedy, which opened and vanished at ₹1.81 Cr against a ₹25 Cr budget. Not every release gets a story; some just get a number.
04US box office, July 4 weekend 2026: Minions & Monsters tops a quiet Fourth
The US spent its 250th birthday at the movies, and honestly? The box office is in good shape — it just didn't throw a party for its new number one. Minions & Monsters, the seventh Despicable Me film, took the top spot with $36.4M over three days ($61.4M since its Wednesday launch) — and here's the irony: it landed the best reviews the franchise has ever had, a 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. A good movie, a muted opening. Blame Toy Story 5 fatigue, blame families saving their money for Moana next week, blame July 4th falling on a Saturday. Seven films in sixteen years will also do it — even the little yellow guys can get overexposed.
| # | Film | Weekend | Last wk | Domestic | WW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minions & Monsters NEW | $36.4M | — | $61.4M | $161M |
| 2 | Toy Story 5 Wk 3 | $31.0M | $70M | $366.3M | $764.3M |
| 3 | Young Washington NEW | $20.8M | — | $20.8M | — |
| 4 | Supergirl Wk 2 ▼74% | $9.6M | $37.1M | $58.4M | $100.5M |
| 5 | Disclosure Day Wk 4 | $6.0M | $8.1M | $105.3M | $216.6M |
| 6 | Obsession Wk 8 | $5.3M | $9.4M | $245.3M | $403M |
| 7 | Backrooms Wk 6 | $3.3M | ~$4.3M | $190.4M | — |
| 8 | Jackass: Best and Last Wk 2 | $2.7M | $8.4M | $14.7M | — |
| 9 | Scary Movie Wk 5 | ~$1.1M | — | $106.2M | $219M |
| 10 | Michael Wk 11 | $0.9M | — | $370M+ | $991.4M |
The real showstopper is still the little one. Obsession — the sub-million-dollar horror film — is in its eighth weekend, took another $5.3M, and has now crossed $403M worldwide on a budget you could raise at a bake sale. Elsewhere, Spielberg's Disclosure Day quietly crossed $100M domestic (the 13th film of 2026 to do so — the market's up sharply year-on-year), and Scary Movie waved goodbye to the top 10 with $106M banked. A rising tide, one very strange little juggernaut, and a franchise mascot that opened politely. Very 2026.
05What we're watching next
Three things decide next week. First, Alpha's weekdays — after a 71% Monday, can it stabilise, or does a ₹100 Cr film quietly become a cautionary tale? Second, Welcome to the Jungle vs Dhamaal 4 — when the next family comedy lands, does Akshay's hold finally break, or does he keep printing money toward ₹200 Cr? And third, whether Main Vaapas Aaunga can somehow stretch its miracle into a fifth week. We'll have the updated India chart and the next US read as the numbers settle. Good to be back — stick around.
06FAQ
How much did Alpha earn in its opening weekend?
Alpha collected ₹34 crore nett (₹40.88 Cr gross) in India over its July 3–5 opening weekend, growing each day (₹9.25 / ₹11.50 / ₹13.25 Cr). Overseas it managed $1.65M, with North America at $574K. Worldwide 3-day gross was about ₹55 crore. It then dropped ~71% on Monday, a concerning weekday trend against its reported ₹100 crore-plus budget.
Did Boxoffy's Alpha North America prediction come true?
No — and we own it. We predicted an NA opening weekend of $1.3M–$2.6M (central ~$1.8M). Alpha actually did $574K in North America, well below even our floor. We over-weighted the YRF Spy Universe brand and the Hrithik cameo, and under-weighted the weak solo overseas track records of both leads — which turned out to be the stronger signal.
How is Welcome to the Jungle holding in week 2?
Very well. Its second weekend grew across the days (₹4.50 / ₹7.35 / ₹9.75 Cr), taking India nett to about ₹115 crore and worldwide past ₹169.76 crore — Bollywood's 4th-biggest global grosser of 2026. Strong word of mouth and family/mass-circuit demand are driving it, even after losing screens to Alpha.
Is Main Vaapas Aaunga still running?
Yes — remarkably, it's in its fourth weekend and still adding, nearing ₹55 crore nett on word of mouth alone, against a ~₹60 crore budget. It's the standout legs story of the summer.
What was number one at the US box office on July 4 weekend?
Minions & Monsters debuted at #1 with $36.4M (a soft opening despite franchise-best 91% reviews). Obsession continued its historic run past $403M worldwide in week 8, and Spielberg's Disclosure Day crossed $100M domestic.
How did Minions & Monsters perform at the box office?
Minions & Monsters opened to $36.4M over the July 3–5 three-day weekend and $61.4M since its Wednesday launch — the lowest start in the Despicable Me/Minions franchise. Despite the soft debut it earned the franchise's best reviews (91% on Rotten Tomatoes) and reached about $161M worldwide in its first days, so it remains a hit against its $85M budget.
How much has Obsession made at the box office?
Obsession has crossed $403M worldwide (over $245M domestic) as of early July 2026 — an extraordinary result for a film made for under $1 million, making it the highest-grossing film ever with a sub-$1M budget. It was still adding $5.3M in its eighth weekend.