Here's the setup for July 10–12: one big new release, and a question mark hanging over it. Dhamaal 4 is the biggest Indian opening of the fortnight — IMDb's most-anticipated Indian film of the year, a comedy franchise with a genuine track record. But it doesn't get a clean run. Akshay Kumar's Welcome to the Jungle is three weeks in and still pulling exactly the family-comedy crowd Dhamaal wants. Two comedies, one audience. That's the whole story of the weekend, and it's why our read comes with a wider band than usual.
- Dhamaal 4 (NEW · Hindi) — the headliner. Our Hype Index 74/100, base-case Day 1 ₹13–19 Cr, weekend ₹52–68 Cr.
- Welcome to the Jungle (Wk 3) is the swing factor — the more of the comedy audience it has already skimmed, the tighter Dhamaal's opening.
- Alpha (Wk 2) enters after a 71% Monday crash; the holdover chart is soft below the top line.
- In the US, the live-action Moana ($45–75M, boom-or-bust) lands on top of week-old Minions & Monsters and Young Washington — the same family-audience logjam, mirrored.
01Dhamaal 4: the Hype Index & the base case
Ajay Devgn, Riteish Deshmukh, Arshad Warsi and Jaaved Jaaferi are back for Indra Kumar's treasure-hunt comedy, now with Anil Kapoor and Madhuri Dixit added and three charting songs already out. The franchise has a genuine record — Total Dhamaal (2019) was a bona fide hit — and comedy is the safest genre in India right now, which is exactly why we land it at 74, HIT WATCH. What keeps it from higher: ensemble comedies open on content and word of mouth rather than a single superstar's Day 1 pull, and Welcome to the Jungle has had three weeks to skim the same audience.
| Window | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 (Fri) | ₹11 Cr | ₹16 Cr | ₹21 Cr |
| Opening weekend (Fri–Sun) | ₹42 Cr | ₹58 Cr | ₹74 Cr |
| Lifetime read (nett) | ₹85 Cr | ₹120 Cr | ₹165 Cr |
For a benchmark: Welcome to the Jungle — the comedy Dhamaal 4 is chasing — opened at ₹19 Cr and legged to a ~₹60 Cr weekend. Our base puts Dhamaal 4 right in that neighbourhood (₹58 Cr), and the bull case clears it outright. The tell will be Saturday: a family comedy that grows from Friday to Saturday has the word of mouth to leg out to ₹120 Cr+; one that stays flat got crowded out. Watch the Saturday bump before you call the lifetime.
02The holdovers: a soft chart under the new arrival
Below Dhamaal 4, the board is thinning fast. Alpha never recovered from its 71% Monday and now loses screens to a fresher comedy. Welcome to the Jungle is the one holdover with real fight left — but it's also Dhamaal's direct competition. Everything else is in its long tail.
| # | Film | Status | This wknd (proj) | India cum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dhamaal 4 NEW | Opening | ₹52–68 Cr | — |
| 2 | Welcome to the Jungle Wk 3 | Holding | ~₹8–13 Cr | ~₹125 Cr |
| 3 | Alpha Wk 2 ▼ | Fading | ~₹8–12 Cr | ~₹50 Cr |
| 4 | Maa Inti Bangaaram Wk 4 | Tail | ~₹2–3 Cr | ~₹58 Cr |
| 5 | Cocktail 2 Wk 4 | Tail | ~₹2 Cr | ~₹95 Cr |
| 6 | Main Vaapas Aaunga Wk 5 | Tail | ~₹2 Cr | ~₹57 Cr |
The weekend's other big Bollywood story skips theatres entirely. Ikka drops on Netflix the same day (July 10) — a courtroom thriller that reunites Sunny Deol and Akshaye Khanna for the first time since Border (1997), nearly three decades ago. It's Sunny Deol's streaming debut, so it won't touch a box-office chart — but that Border-reunion nostalgia makes it the weekend's biggest at-home draw. Early reviews are mixed (2.5–3.5 stars); for 90s Bollywood fans, the pairing alone is the event.
03The US board: Moana rolls the dice into a family logjam
Here's the neat symmetry of the weekend — both markets are staging the same fight. In India it's Dhamaal 4 landing on a holdover comedy; in the US it's a new family tentpole landing on one that's only a week old. Disney sends its live-action Moana into American cinemas, the hardest call on the calendar. The remake floor is high (Aladdin opened to $91M, The Little Mermaid to $95M) and the animated Moana is a streaming monster, but remake fatigue is real and this spring's Snow White flop haunts the whole strategy. Our read is a deliberately wide $45–75M with low confidence.
The catch: Moana isn't landing in open water. Minions & Monsters is only a week old and owns the exact same family audience, and Young Washington — Angel Studios' surprise $20.8M debut — has the faith-and-family base that historically holds unusually well. It's a crowded kids' matinee market, and that overlap is the real cap on Moana's ceiling.
| # | Film | Status | This wknd (proj) | Domestic cum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana (live-action) NEW | Opening | $45–75M | — |
| 2 | Minions & Monsters Wk 2 ▼ | Holding | ~$18–22M | ~$90M |
| 3 | Toy Story 5 Wk 4 | Fading | ~$14M | ~$385M |
| 4 | Young Washington Wk 2 | Holding | ~$10–13M | ~$30M |
| 5 | Supergirl Wk 3 | Fading | ~$4–5M | ~$65M |
| 6 | Disclosure Day Wk 5 | Tail | ~$3–4M | ~$112M |
| 7 | Obsession Wk 9 | Tail | ~$2.5–3M | ~$252M |
04The receipts: what we called vs where it landed
A forecast is only worth the accountability behind it, so here's our recent scorecard — the good and the bad, no cherry-picking.
| Signal | Our call | Actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Welcome to the Jungle · Day 1 | ₹19 Cr | ~₹19 Cr | ✓ Nailed it |
| Alpha · North America opening | $1.3–2.6M (central $1.8M) | $574K | ✗ Missed high |
| Maa Inti Bangaaram · Jun 19–21 | Not on our radar | ₹23 Cr open | ✗ Surprised us |
So the honest frame for Dhamaal 4: we nailed the last big comedy opening (Welcome to the Jungle, to the rupee), and we've been humbled twice recently on films where the crowd — or the brand — pulled harder than our model expected. That's why the base case above is a band, not a point. Watch that Saturday bump.
05FAQ
When does Dhamaal 4 release and how much will it open?
Dhamaal 4 releases July 10, 2026. Boxoffy's base case is a Day 1 of ₹13–19 crore nett (central ₹16 Cr) and an opening weekend of ₹52–68 crore, with a ₹120 crore lifetime read if word of mouth holds. Trade tracking (Pinkvilla ₹14–19 Cr, Koimoi ₹13–15 Cr) lines up with the base.
What's competing with Dhamaal 4 this weekend?
Its main competition is a holdover: Akshay Kumar's Welcome to the Jungle, in week 3, which draws the same family-comedy audience. Alpha (week 2) is fading fast after a 71% Monday drop, and the rest of the India chart is in its long tail. In the US, the live-action Moana opens the same weekend.
What is the Boxoffy Hype Index score for Dhamaal 4?
74 out of 100 — "Hit Watch" tier. It reflects Dhamaal 4's status as IMDb's most-anticipated Indian film of 2026 and a proven comedy franchise, held back only by a crowded family-comedy lane with Welcome to the Jungle still running.
Is Ikka releasing in theatres or on Netflix?
Ikka is a direct-to-streaming release — it premieres worldwide on Netflix on July 10, 2026, the same day Dhamaal 4 opens in cinemas. The courtroom thriller reunites Sunny Deol and Akshaye Khanna for the first time since Border (1997) and marks Sunny Deol’s streaming debut, so it does not appear on theatrical box-office charts.
What movies are in US theaters the weekend of July 10–12, 2026?
The new wide release is Disney's live-action Moana (Boxoffy read $45–75M). It faces a crowded holdover field led by Minions & Monsters (week 2, ~$18–22M), Toy Story 5 (week 4), Young Washington (week 2), Supergirl, Disclosure Day and the long-running Obsession — a family-audience logjam that mirrors India's Dhamaal 4 vs Welcome to the Jungle comedy clash.
How accurate have Boxoffy's recent predictions been?
Mixed, and we publish both. We called Welcome to the Jungle's ₹19 crore Day 1 to the rupee. We missed on Alpha's North America opening (predicted $1.3–2.6M, it did $574K) and were caught off guard by Maa Inti Bangaaram's ₹23 crore opening. The misses have been folded back into the model.